Many of us were running errands, working out, or having breakfast when, in true 2026 Venezuelan fashion, María Corina Machado returned.
She reappeared in the middle of a Sunday mass at the Santa Rosa basilica, a church near the city of Barquisimeto, home to the most popular Virgin Mary cult: la Divina Pastora.
Surrounded by churchgoers and members of her party, Vente Venezuela, Machado joined the mass and embraced people, in a public demonstration of prayer, faith, and hope, in line with her religious persona that made her massively popular in 2023 and 2024, when she crossed the country meeting the communities more affected by mass migration and economic collapse.
There’s not a lot of information yet, but apparently Machado made it in her 9th attempt, this time via Colombia. Making her first appearance in Barquisimeto (Lara) is relevant because, in the same vein as in her previous campaign, she’s giving more weight to the regions. She will ride to Caracas and make stops along the way in stops at Carabobo, Aragua and Miranda.
Captain General Rubio appeared on X to claim credit:
And also to remind EVERYONE that they must align with the US sponsored talks—no one is talking about the other result they produced this week, a not completely chavista commission to get the new Supreme Court judges appointed (we will dive into it this week).
Machado went through a political tour de force to be in Venezuela today, but the fact that it wasn’t easy will pay off down the line. It is clear that she retains a certain degree of independence in this deeply controlled environment. Which doesn’t mean that she doesn’t have to play along the Trump administration to get where she wants to go. A couple of weeks ago we said this in our Political Risk Report (PRR):
We expect Machado to be back in Venezuela before the US midterm elections. She will look to make the move with Trump’s blessing, but she will certainly aim to be in the country before a possible change of guard in Congress. It wouldn’t make sense for her to wait to have another front to deal with, and she may want to take advantage of the good will that she currently has with the democratic party, trusting that she will have congressional support once she’s in Venezuela, because in a way she’s not in complete alignment with Trump himself.
A couple of questions:
What will the Local Management, and Corporate, do (if you’re new, we’re talking about Delcy and the Trump administration)?
As we described many times in our PRR, the chavista regime was preparing for this for months, speaking as if it wasn’t their fault that Machado wasn’t there, as if they would not have persecuted her and charged her with several crimes.
Donald Trump just said that she is nice because she gifted him the Nobel Prize, so he hopes she’s ok. However, Rubio did go out of his way to say they had a hand in her return. Maybe it was because they are aligned indeed and there’s the concept of a plan, or maybe they supported Machado’s return to counter the bad press they received from the Betancourt deal almost at the finish line of the midterms.
The next step for both will have to do with the dance at the negotiation table, Rubio’s plan has been followed to the letter, or as much as the regime can follow a plan to the letter, but we’re heading toward the most contentious point in the discussion: Machado’s requalification to run in the election.
What will Machado do?
The big test for Machado will be what to do to stay relevant from this point to the election. We expect she will tour the country and then, of course, do all the work required to clear all the hurdles for her to get to an election—including the ability to actually run. We already said this in our PRR many times.
But it’s not like she’ll run out of things to do: She has to organize pressure to accelerate the complicated roadmap towards rebuilding the institutions and hold elections, including a presidential one where she is finally allowed to compete. At the same time, she’ll likely have to address the public ire about blackouts and inflation. This could actually turn into an opportunity that could be useful to the US. Organizing those protests under a movement that to lead a more coherent and productive campaign towards a true democratic—not only economic—transition, could help keep that ire at bay. With the appointment of the committee that will choose new justices for the Supreme Court, while the repressive apparatus led by Diosdado Cabello continues to show muscle by harassing activists, we must expect more street action and political negotiation. This is a challenge to both Machado and Delcy Rodríguez, and a shock to the dead calm chavismo was trying to settle.
But the biggest question is how will the people react?
